麻豆传媒AV

SASKATOON — Mexico is shifting from being a major exporter of durum to an importer of the crop in 2025-26, says an analyst.

“They’re having a pretty tough growing season,” said Erica Olson, market development and research manager with the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

The is forecasting 600,000 tonnes of production, down from 1.4 million tonnes last year and two million tonnes the year before that.

The council is forecasting 50,000 tonnes of exports, down from 180,000 tonnes last year and 650,000 to 750,000 tonnes three to four years ago.

“Mexico used to be a pretty large exporter of durum and that has shrunk a lot recently,” said Olson.

“It’s a big deal in the sense that the situation turned real quick.”

She said it is tough to say whether the future holds more of the same or if this is an anomaly. The rapid decline in exports is due to .

At least in the short-term, the country is becoming a net importer of the crop.

Mexico has purchased 24,200 tonnes of U.S. durum through the first few weeks of the 2025-26 marketing campaign, making it the largest buyer of the crop during that period.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released its Grain and Feed Update report for Mexico on June 23.

The USDA expects Mexico to import 400,000 tonnes of durum in 2025-26 to offset sharply reduced domestic production.

The report did not break out wheat production by class.

However, it shows total wheat production is forecast to fall 36 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes due to prolonged drought, record-low reservoir levels in Sonora and Sinaloa that limited irrigation, and weaker price expectations.

Sonora accounts for more than 50 per cent of the country’s total wheat production.

“To offset reduced production, wheat imports are projected to rise 23 per cent to 6.4 million tonnes,” stated the FAS.

“Exports are forecast to drop 50 per cent to 50,000 tonnes, as lower durum wheat production is expected to be absorbed by domestic demand.”

Two years ago, the country exported 850,000 tonnes of all types of wheat by comparison.

Olson said all eyes in the durum market are now turning to U.S. and Canadian production.

She said North Dakota’s crop is looking promising. Good rainfall in May pulled many of the state’s durum growing areas out of significant drought.

“We’re definitely looking better moisture-wise that we have the last couple of years,” said Olson.

The situation is the opposite in Montana.

“The crop is off to a pretty tough start,” she said.

North Dakota’s durum acres are up eight percent over last year, while Montana’s are down 14 percent. Overall U.S. acres are slightly down.

Canada’s in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Olson said global durum demand could be tempered a bit by improved crop conditions in the European Union and North Africa.

About the author

Reporter/Analyst

Sean Pratt has been working at The Western Producer since 1993 after graduating from the University of Regina’s School of Journalism. Sean also has a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Saskatchewan and worked in a bank for a few years before switching careers. Sean primarily writes markets and policy stories about the grain industry and has attended more than 100 conferences over the past three decades. He has received awards from the Canadian Farm Writers Federation, North American Agricultural Journalists and the American Agricultural Editors Association.

Related Coverage