There is some good news for those fearing a repeat of last year's floods.
Barring a massive amount of precipitation this spring, it appears as though the chances of another flood in southeast Saskatchewan are very low.
The Saskatchewan Watershed Authority released its first runoff forecast for 2012 Monday and noted that the southeast is near normal. In comparison, the first forecast for 2011 predicted well above normal runoff.
According to the report, the present snowpack in the province is well below normal except for the very northeast portion. Areas of the southwest are well below normal.
"Due to the combination of the dry fall and generally below normal winter snowpack there is a low potential for above average runoff across the agricultural area of the province," the report said.
In the Souris River Basin, below normal rainfall and precipitation has occurred which has led the SWA to predict that near normal runoff is expected based on average precipitation for February, March and April of this year.
As for the local reservoirs, the report said that as of Feb. 1, Boundary Dam was at an elevation of 560.32 metres which is its full supply level.
"Based on current conditions in the basin, Boundary Reservoir is expected to remain full into 2012."
Any excess inflow into Boundary will be diverted into Rafferty Dam through the diversion channel. It is not anticipated that water will be released over the Boundary Dam spillway.
Rafferty Dam was at 549.22 metres as of Feb. 1 and based on projected inflows the SWA says it will not have to release anymore water prior to spring runoff. They also anticipate the water levels on Rafferty to rise by just 0.3 metres in the spring.
The situation is similar at the Alameda Reservoir where the SWA says they will not have to release any further water prior to the spring runoff. The dam is currently at 560 metres and is also expected to rise by 0.3 metres. However it is expected a release will be required for apportionment.
A more detailed report from the SWA is expected in early March.
